USA

So what a super exciting game yesterday. Obviously the US fans are disappointed, since we came 30 seconds from a great win and a spot in the next round. It is strange how these things work. If the US had scored the equalizer 30 seconds before the end, the fans would be ecstatic. Yet here we are with the same result and we are down. The US gave up a stupid goal in the first few minutes and then struggled to get the lead the rest of the game. In some ways, conceding the early goal was good for the US. It opened up play and allowed the US to show what they can do. The US looked dangerous at times, and outside the early mistake, the defense looked solid. When the 2 US goals came, they felt deserved, but Portugal showed their class, and even though they were 2ounded and playing chase most of the afternoon, they did not give up. Following a mistake from Bradley at midfield (I thought Bradley played a weak game all day), they found the one moment of skill at the very end to tie the game.
  So what now? The US has numerous ways to progress...and a few ways to be eliminated.  Lets look at how scoring in the group stage is calculated. A team gets 3 points for a win, and 1 for a tie, and 0 for a loss. At the end of group play, if two teams finish with the same points, than the first tie breaker is goal differential, and the second is goals scored. So a 2-0 win is better than a 1-0 win, and a 2-2 tie, is better than a 0-0 tie. Head to head play does not come into the tiebreaker.
   The USA's next game is against Germany who have the same number of points as the US, but are ahead on goal differential. Both teams have 4 points. Ghana and Portugal each have 1 point.  If either the US or Germany win the last game, they win the group. The loser would have 4 points. If one of the teams in the Ghana/Portugal game wins, they will have 4 points. So the tiebreaker will depend goals scored. If the Ghana/Portugal game ends in a tie, then both Germany and the US advance no matter what. Also, if the US/Germany game ends in a tie, than they both advance with 5 points. The games are played simultaneously in a hopes to avoid match fixing. So this leaves the question, should the US and Germany just play for a tie? I would say yes. Being aggressive and fighting for the win, leaves you exposed and open to losing. If the goal is to win the WC, than advancing is the goal.  It is really not a lot different than a team resting their players in the last games of a season once they made the playoffs. Why risk it, whether you are Germany or USA? I know it is not a popular view, but I hope to see the worlds most boring 0-0 tie on Thursday.

Saturdays games

Saturday saw both Group F games as well as one of the Group G games.
  In the morning game, Argentina struggled with Iran for 90 minutes before a Messi strike from the top of the box gave the South American team the win. To be truthful, it was not a very impressive display from Argentina. They showed a lack of width in the forward third. They had only one point of attack and that was through the middle. They are extremely adept at this, but it does not work when a team packs in the middle on defense. Argentina will have success against offensive minded teams, but against teams with strong disciplined central defenders, it will be a struggle. We also saw Iran have some success on the break. The Argentinian defenders lack of speed was shown. Watch for this to be an issue as the tournament progresses.
  The second game saw Bosnia fall to Nigeria, and thus out of the tournament. While I picked Nigeria to advance, and it looks like they will, I must say that I felt Bosnia was the better team on the field. They had a beautiful goal disallowed for a poor offsides call, and they have an argument that the Nigerian goal was the product of an offensive foul. I am sure they feel cheated, but these things happen in soccer. Over time, the fates balance out, but on any given day, it can be cruel. Nigeria will have to show more than speed to get results in the knockout round.
  The other  game on Saturday was half of Group G. Germany played Ghana in a tremendously exciting back and forth match that saw Germany score a late goal and earn a tie. The Germans looked the better team for most of the first half but failed to score. In the second half they got an early goal, and just when it looked like they might take charge, Ghana struck twice on the counter and took the lead. For the rest of the match Ghana showed that a good offense was the best defense. They outplayed Germany, but a couple substitutes on the deep German bench turned momentum a the tied was deserved.  For the US, this was a good result, because now a win against Portugal guarantees a spot in the second round. Ties and loses , also leave a chance, but why make it so difficult? They need to take out the guess work and secure the 3 points. We shall see.

Results of Group D games

Well Group D has now played 2 games, and 2 things are clear. England is going home after the first round, and Costa Rica, and perhaps the CONCACAF  region as a whole are better than people think.
Yesterday England and Uruguay played in a game that both needed to win. England lost 2-1, after losing to Italy 2-1 in the previous game. After the loss, they had only the slimmest chance to get out of the group, and those hopes were dashed when Costa Rica won today. The failure to advance is particularly painful for England because they really did not play that poorly. They have played worse in other tournaments and still advanced. Yet what plaques England is what always does. They play scared and tight and nervous. Despite any false bravado, they do not believe they will win. They are always waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is the same reason they fail in penalty kick shoot-outs. Everyone knows nerves kill in shoot-outs. England played tight and that led to the defensive mistakes that resulted in goals ( somewhat against the run of play) in both loses. Of course losing reinforces the doubt and the nerves and now England is mired in a 50 year old cycle that talent alone will not erase.
  Uruguay found a way to win. The return of Suarez from a knee injury was the key. He was out of shape, and not uber aggressive, but he has the touch of a goal scorer, and he pounced on the England miscues and made them pay. After watching Uruguay play their 2 games, I am not convinced they will beat Italy, but they have given themselves a chance, and that is all their fans asked for.
     Today, Costa Rica got a great result and beat Italy to ensure a place in the knock out round. It is only the second time that they have gotten that far, but it is no fluke. They out hustled and out played the Italians for most of the match. They created goal scoring chances from midfield, never letting Italy get in a groove. After beating Uruguay, they actually look to be the best team in this group. No one will want to play them in the round of 16. If the US can get a result in the next two games, we will probably have 3 teams from our region in the final 16, and that has never happened in any previous WC.
  Italy did not look sharp today, and most of that credit can go to Costa Rica, but they are still my favorite to get out of the group over Uruguay. They will not make the kind of mistakes that the South Americans capitalized on in the win over England. Italy will play with in themselves and find away to penetrate the Uruguayan defense. Still, it will be a winner take all game and it should be a classic. The kind of match the World Cup is all about.

Nightly Telecast

So I am going to write about today's games in the morning, but I wanted to comment a little bit about the nightly WC studio telecast. The show has a great set, and a decent format, but it is so amateurish it is amazing, but what is kind of surprising, I really like it. The announcers all have good insight and great information, they are just not polished. Mike Tirico is the only professional broadcaster, and he tries to keep it moving. He might feel frustrated, but it does not show. He seems to enjoy the different personalities. They have players from around the globe who add some perspective. They do some human interest, but not to much. I even enjoy Alexi Lalas on this show. He is loud and opinionated, but he is the worst soccer player they have on the set, so the other guys keep him in line. I guess it is refreshing to see an under produced, yet information filled show with what appear to be real guys + Julie Foudy.

Evaluations

So in evaluating the teams so far we run in to a couple issues. Is Costa Rica really a great team, or is Uruguay weak? Is Holland the next coming or did Spain just have an off night? Will a loss in the opening game pull a team apart, or bring them together to fight on? After one game these determinations are almost impossible, yet the prognosticators can't help themselves. We will learn much more after the second game. It will separate the wheat from the chaff, so to say. I think Costa Rica and Holland are a little overrated, England and Ghana underrated, but we shall see.

The last off the 1st games and the start of the 2nd

So today saw the last of the 1st group games get started. Group H finally gets in on the fun. We also saw the second games for hosts Brazil and their opponent Mexico.
    The favorite in Group H is probably Belgium. They are ranked 5th in the world( although the ranking system FIFA uses is absurd). They do have lots of talent. It is Belgium's first time in this favorite position, and a number of its players lack experience on this kind of stage. The nerves were obvious in the game against Algeria. The halftime score saw Algeria with the lead from a deserved penalty kick conversion. While it was against the run of play, it seemed like the result might hold as the Algerians are a tough defense to break down and Belgium was struggling. About midway in the half, Belgium subbed in Fellaini, the Man U midfielder. His presence paid almost immediate dividends as he flicked a header past the Algerian goalie. The pressure only mounted and a few minutes later they converted on a break as they secured a well earned 2-1 victory. With 3 points in hand, they might relax and become a dangerous squad.
  Russia played Korea in the afternoon game. It was a high spirited game between a couple of teams who although not highly talented, have a great chance on getting out of the group stage due to the weakness of their group. Algeria is not likely to get out, so that means either Russia or Korea will join Belgium in the knock out phase. With so much to play for, it is understandable that nerves were present. Russia looked the better side, but poor goalie
play gave South Korea a goal. Russia pushed back and eventually got the equalizer. Time expired before either team could break the deadlock. It seems likely that tie breakers will decide who gets out of H.
The high profile match was Mexico vs Brazil. This game had lots of drama, and Mexico got a well deserved tie and 1 point. The styles of the two teams area similar, and there were times when El Trico controlled the ball, but despite this, they never had any great scoring chances. They shot high...wide...but not on target. Brazil had a different problem. They created great scoring chances and probably thought they had put a couple in the back of the net, but great goalkeeping stuffed them.  It takes 11 players to play the game, and Mexico needed the 11th. Ochoa was a real hero. Still, Mexico is going to feel great about this game, but their confidence might be a bit over blown. Obviously getting points off Brazil is great, but Ochoa can't bail them out every time, and they still do not look like a team that knows how to score. If Croatia wins tomorrow, then the final game between Mexico and Croatia will be the clincher.

Group G games

So I did not post yesterday. My apologies.
  There were 3 games. The least exciting of the games was Nigeria and Iran. It gave us our first tie and to be truthful, both sides seemed very pleased with getting the 1 point. To be fair, neither side has much a chance to get out of the group, but with the point, each still have hope as they head into the second game.
  The first game of the day saw Germany manhandle Portugal. A good deal was made before this game about the matchup between the German defense against World Footballer of the year, Cristiano Ronaldo. While I really do not think that there is much debate of what an amazing player Cristiano is, he is one player against a very disciplined talented German team. The Germans looked very good. Many had predicted a deep tournament run for Germany. This looked every bit a team capable of winning the cup. They have structure, depth and they are creative through the midfield. While Portugal made the job easier by getting a player tossed and going down to 10 men, the Germans were up 2 to 0 already. The Portuguese suffered a cup ending injury to a top flight defender, and of course Pepe will have to sit out the next game for the red card. While it is true that Portugal has real offensive talent and they can score on anyone, People need to remember that they had a very difficult time in qualification. They barely made the Cup and some of their hype is based on past performances and not current data. They are immature and at times selfish. They have a red card in every tournament they have played for the last 20 years. The next game against the US will be a true test for both teams.
  The last game was the much anticipated USA vs Ghana. Ghana is a nightmare matchup for the US. They knocked them out of the last 2 Cups. In fact last year, they came a handball on the goal line away from making the final 4. They are physical and well conditioned. The US got a great early goal from Dempsey, but in away, that shifted the flow of the rest of the game. The US found itself playing defense for 80 minutes. In part because of a probable tournament ending injury to Altidore. With out Josie up front, the US could never find their form, and to be fair, it is hard to switch over your strategy in mid game. So difficult that it was wiser to minimize mistakes and protect the lead. The strategy almost backfired as Ghana scored in the 82 minute. The US showed great resolve by coming back to get the game winner late. 3 points is 3 points, and they now find themselves with a real chance to get out of group. They play Portugal next, and they matchup well. Both sides have players to replace. The US up front, and Portugal in defense. We will we see how it plays out on Sunday. One thing for sure, if the US can win that game...they are almost guaranteed of making the second round. Ghana still have a shot. They will be going all out against Germany on Saturday. They are a much better squad than people think and it will not be a cakewalk for the Germans.