Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Group H -  Belgium….Algeria…..Russia….Korea Republic

Our last group is Group H. The surprise powerhouse in this group is Belgium. I say surprise because theirs is not a name that rolls off of your tongue when you name the great soccer teams of Europe. Still, they have talent from top to bottom with Belgian players occupying all-star positions in all the great leagues. They have defenders like Kompany from Man City, midfielders like Defour from Porto and strikers such as Mertins from Napoli and a player who is one of the favorites to win the goal scoring trophy, the Golden Boot”, Lukaku, who plays for Everton and will be a household name by the end of the tournament.  They are the class of this group and can go far in the knock out stage as well.
  Russia are my pick to come out second. They are not as strong as in past years, but the style that they play goes over well in this type of event. They play strong defense, they do not beat themselves, and the have absolutely no pressure. In fact as an underdog they have a chance to show people up and this is something that Russians have always enjoyed doing.
  I am going to put South Korea as my number 3 team, although it would not surprise me if they were to come in second. Over the last 20 years, the South Koreans have had players infiltrate all over Europe. They have players in the Serie A in Italy and the Premier League in England. They are known for  a high work rate and a quick passing game that is the hallmark of good midfield players. What they have never excelled in and what will be their downfall once again is the back half of their squad, the defense and the goal keeper position. They do not stand up well to heavy pressure and the physical play that come in the World Cup and so this year I predict they will be watching the second round from the sidelines…or the pool deck…or the beach.

  For most Americans, the highlight of last World Cup and one of the greatest soccer moments ever was the last second goal that Landon Donovan scored against Algeria to put the Americans through to the second round. It was one of the greatest of my soccer memories. Suffice it to say, it will not be repeated, not just because Donovan is not in Brazil, but because teams will be scoring on them at will.

Group G...."a bunch of cupcakes"

Group G-   Germany….Portugal….Ghana….United States

Group G has been called the group of Death. That is a stupid phrase. It is a very hard group, this is true. In fact all 4 teams qualified for the round of 16 in the last cup. The other groups have an average of less than 1.5 teams that made it that far last time. One thing is for sure…two teams who made the round of 16 last cup…will not make it this time.
 Germany had a very strong team in the last World Cup and nothing has changed in the last 4 years. They have a couple minor health issues and are missing Marco Reus, a quality goal scorer, but they have a great deal of depth, and they will not lean on excuses. The team the US beat last summer, was an out of shape B team, while the US was in prime shape from gold Cup and domestic league play. Not much should be read into that game. It will be a complete shock if the Germans do not make it out of group play #1.
   Here is my homer pick. I am selecting the US to come out of this group #2. It will not be easy, but if they can get 4 points out of the Ghana and Portugal games, which means beating one and tying the other, than I think they will get through. They have the advantage of playing Germany last, by which time the Germans might already be through and laying low. If this is the case, they might even get a tie here as well. Now do not get me wrong. It will not be easy. In fact it will be very very difficult, but it is completely within the team’s ability.  They do not need to do anything amazing; they just have to not make mistakes. That is easier said than done, but if they play the way they can, and avoid communication breakdowns on defense…than they have the ability to move on in this tournament.
    Portugal are an interesting team. They struggled through qualifying and in fact they needed a win in their last game on the road in Sweden to even make the Cup, but they got it. They got it because perhaps the most dangerous and talented goal scorer in the world plays for them.  Cristiano Ronaldo is every bit the World Footballer of the Year. He scored a hat trick in that game clincher in Sweden. He can score at any minute against any one, but he is just one player, and in addition to a few nagging injuries that have been bothering him, he has also disappeared in international matches in the past. His club record is much better than his record for his country, and while he could almost win this group on his own..he could also fade into the background and that is my prediction for this cup. Despite a few flashes..Portugal will not advance.

    Ghana has knocked the US out of the WC before. On more than one occasion. They are talented fast and deep. The style they play, gives the US fits. That is partially why Klinsmann selected Nigeria as the last tune up game for the Americans, they play a similar style. The US does not plan on letting Ghana beat them again. If that happens, then Ghana will be in trouble against Germany and Portugal, both of whom play with more discipline and experience. Ghana, if they fail against the US, will likely go 3 and out. One interesting matchup to watch when Ghana play Germany are the Boatang brothers. They are twins and one plays for Ghana and the other for Germany. This has never happened before in a World Cup.

Group F

Group F-    Argentina….Bosnia & Herzegovina….Iran…Nigeria

Group F contains my pick to win the World Cup.  Argentina is now my favorite. This gives me no joy. I do not cheer for this South American powerhouse. I was never a fan of Maradona.  I am begrudging in my respect for Messi, but the simple fact is, they have deep talent. They are playing right next door to their home, which as history has shown is a real plus. They are healthy, and they have confidence, but not the immense pressure that Brazil have. These group games are just scrimmages and they will be primed and ready when the knock out stages start in 2 weeks.
 The second place team was not an easy choice, but I am going with Nigeria, not because of any great faith in their abilities. After all…they did not look that great against the US on Saturday, rather my lack of faith in the other two teams in this group. The Nigerian team is physical and healthy enough to get the points they need against the other weak opponents.
Bosnia is not a real threat to get out of the group. The team has a couple players with top flight European experience, but no real depth and no World Cup experience, since this is their first time qualifying. I realize they scored goals during the qualifying process, 30 in 10 games, but that was against weak teams and when asked to defend themselves…they have been lacking.

Iran is not going to make it out. Enough said. They do not have world class talent and they do not have experience. They will load up 10 players behind the ball. Frustrate and break up as much of the other teams offense as possible and hope that a mistake is made that somehow gives them a goal.

Monday, June 9, 2014

Soccer from nation to nation

Soccer is played all over the world, yet it is a little different everywhere. One of the beautiful things about the sport is that it can be played in so many different styles. Over time, every country has adapted the game to their own country's personality. The flair of the Italians, the joy of the Brazilians, and the German structure are all on display. As you watch games in this cup, notice ways that the sides playing styles reflect the country. Then watch the USA play. No country in Brazil has as many people from as many nationalities as the United States. It is great to see and truly reflects the multicultural nature of the country. If the team can learn to play together, there can be strength in the diversity. If not...if they are not able to communicate and get on the same page, then it will be a short tournament.

Group E

Group E -  Switzerland.......Ecuador......France.....Honduras

Group E is a very interesting one. Switzerland do not have a long history of being a world class power. Yet, in qualifying, they were very strong and in fact went undefeated. They will surprise teams with how well organized they are and the fact that they do not make mistakes. I think they will actually win this group, although the game with France will likely determine that.
  France are one of the most hot/cold teams in soccer. They won the whole thing in 1998 and came in second in 2006, yet in 2002 and 2010, the did not even get out of the group and failed to win a game. History would predict that this might be another year for a title run, and they have plenty of talent, but they have been bitten by injuries and they do not have a great deal of time playing together. I still think they get out of the group, but after that...we shall see.
   Ecuador is a very good team. They finished fourth in their qualifying group, but against the other South American powerhouses, that is not bad. Still the majority of the Ecuadorean roster play on clubs in South America, not the stronger European leagues. Antonio Valences, the Manchester United winger is the lone exception, but he will not be enough.
  Honduras is the final group team, and like many teams in the tournament, they are more a place holder than anything else. Teams will have to protect the ball against them, and of course this is soccer, so anything can happen, but Ecuador making it to the next round would be quite a miracle.
 

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Group D

Group D-Italy...Uruguay....England....Costa Rica

This is one of the two toughest groups in the World Cup. I am picking Italy to come out on top. Last World Cup was a nightmare for the Azure. Not only did they under perform, but there were scandals in their  pro league. Match fixing  and financial misconduct. The performance was just the last straw. Since then, they have made changes and brought in a number of new young players. Now I think they are a real favorite to win the whole cup.
     My pick to also make it out of the group is England. I know that Uruguay is the more popular pick, but England have a number of new youngsters to go with  experienced stars. It has been 48 years since England won the World Cup. They seem to always under perform, but this year, expectations are not as high...and I think that works in their favor and they make a deep run. They won't win...but they will do well.
    Uruguay had a great tournament last cup, and they have talent, including Suarez, who might be one of the top 3 scoreres in all football, but the pressure, and team chemistry are not good. No sneaking up on anyone this year.
   Costa Rica have had a great year. They might be the second best team in Concacaf. There are several players from the MLS, and Ruiz, Costa Ricans best player plays his trade in England, but this group is just too tough, and Costa Rica will be short lived in Brazil.


Saturday, June 7, 2014

Group C

Group - C.  Columbia......Greece.....Ivory Coast.....Japan...

  Compared to the first two groups, group C is pretty weak. Columbia is likely to come out on top. Some of this prediction is based on the fact they are playing in their home continent. This has always been an advantage for teams at the World Cup. The winning percentage for teams in their own continent in the history of the tournament is about 20% higher. Columbia has world class talent and a deep roster. I do not expect them to do much in the second round, but getting there should be easy.
  Ivory Coast is my choice for second in the group. They are a big physical team that plays with flair. In this group that will be enough. Depth and team unity are not the greatest...but they will be in shape and they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder. For years the soccer world has predicted great things from them, and to this point they have not delivered.
In years past, Japan has had a strong team. They play with a team chemistry and discipline to be admired. However the talent pool is not where it has been in the past. The striker Honda is a player to watch, but when the tournament is over the Japanese squad will not be in the knock-out round.
  It was not that many years ago the the Greek national team came out of nowhere to shock Europe and win the European championship. They pulled off that feet with a stifling defense that shut out and frustrated opponents and an offensive that out worked the other guy as they pounced on mistakes. It was one of the biggest underdog stories in world soccer history. That was then...not now. Greece will be home before July.