The 4 games of Saturday

So 4 games on this first Saturday. All good games, with an upset, a come back and a close match between European powers.
  In the first game, Columbia overpowered an out manned Greek team. This was no surprise. The Greeks play a defensive style of football and hope for ties and miracles. Columbia is likely to get out of the group, and today showed why. Creative and energetic, this is a good team.
  The surprise of the day was Costa Rica upsetting Uruguay. This was an upset, but this was not a fluke. Uruguay scored first on a justified penalty, but after that, it was all Costa Rica. I had expected Uruguay to look older and slower than last cup where they made the semifinals. I do not think they will get out of the group, but I did think they would win today. Actually, when looking at the game, Uruguay's biggest weakness was goalie play. He was very weak, and that does not bode well for their chances.
The game between the Ivory Coast and Japan was telling. The team play of Japan carried them through the first half with a one goal lead, but they looked tired and out manned in the second half and Ivory Coast played well, got through their jitters, and with the help  of Drogba,  they looked every bit a second round squad.
  The marquee match of the day was Italy vs England. These are the two sides most likely to get out of group play, especially with the weak form Uruguay showed today. To be fair, both sides were disappointing. England played some bizarre formation that left tons of room on the flanks for the Italian midfield to sit on the ball. They never looked like they had a game plan, and while there were some individual moments of good play, it was sloppy covering on a cross that let in the last goal. Of course more marking on the outside would have limited the Italian chances. As far as Italy is concerned, is there a more boring specter in international football then Italy sitting on a lead? It is so boring to watch, although effective. I always hope for the bright joyful football that everyone knows they can play....but it seems to never come. Nothing I saw today changes my mind that Italy and England will make round two, although the Three Lions now have no margin for error.

Holland-Spain

Well I was planning on making one post at the end of the day to cover the games that were played that day, but the Spain- Netherlands game requires some kind of comment.  What a trouncing. I believe that my predictions were for a draw. I think that I thought these teams were a bit long in the tooth and that they would be a little slow.  I was half right. Spain were missing a step, and the “Barcelona” style that has made them the most successful national side for the last 6-8 years has to some extent been neutralized.  Coaches have figured out how to clog the middle and attack the flanks, and while this might not have worked when the Spanish midfield was quicker, father time has slowed them a step or two, and that’s all these teams need to take advantage. I was worried that the early penalty/flop was going to be the story of the game, but Van Percy and Robben took care of that concern. I had stated that the Dutch were always dangerous to attack, but I did not see that onslaught coming. The young players did their bit, and the old guard looked anything but old.  Holland is now a favorite to win this group, and while I still expect Spain to rebound and get to the next round, Chile must be licking their lips at the opportunity that lies at their feet. 

Opening game

So the opening game has been played. A few take-a-ways. No one can underestimate the importance of winning the first game. As some one once said.....you can't win the world cup in the first game, but you can lose it. Brazil looked a little rough at times, and a little great at times. Their defense needs work, but they got 3 points, and that is what counts.  Croatia played well, but with out Mandzukic, the Bayern Munich striker who had to sit out today because of a red card in qualifying, they did not have the the fire power. Still, he will be back next game and Croatia has to believe they can make it out of the group.
   What has me most worried is the officiating. Not about missed calls. I am not worried about the penalty kick, or a card given or not given. What has me concerned was the overall physical level of the game. Hard tackles were everywhere. Is this going to be the way the games are called? If so, Italy and Uruguay must be pinching themselves because that style will suit them well. The creative teams, they will get beat up and it will not be fun to watch. Hopefully this game was an aberration. There's are 4 games tomorrow, so I guess we will find out.

Group H -  Belgium….Algeria…..Russia….Korea Republic

Our last group is Group H. The surprise powerhouse in this group is Belgium. I say surprise because theirs is not a name that rolls off of your tongue when you name the great soccer teams of Europe. Still, they have talent from top to bottom with Belgian players occupying all-star positions in all the great leagues. They have defenders like Kompany from Man City, midfielders like Defour from Porto and strikers such as Mertins from Napoli and a player who is one of the favorites to win the goal scoring trophy, the Golden Boot”, Lukaku, who plays for Everton and will be a household name by the end of the tournament.  They are the class of this group and can go far in the knock out stage as well.

  Russia are my pick to come out second. They are not as strong as in past years, but the style that they play goes over well in this type of event. They play strong defense, they do not beat themselves, and the have absolutely no pressure. In fact as an underdog they have a chance to show people up and this is something that Russians have always enjoyed doing.

  I am going to put South Korea as my number 3 team, although it would not surprise me if they were to come in second. Over the last 20 years, the South Koreans have had players infiltrate all over Europe. They have players in the Serie A in Italy and the Premier League in England. They are known for  a high work rate and a quick passing game that is the hallmark of good midfield players. What they have never excelled in and what will be their downfall once again is the back half of their squad, the defense and the goal keeper position. They do not stand up well to heavy pressure and the physical play that come in the World Cup and so this year I predict they will be watching the second round from the sidelines…or the pool deck…or the beach.

  For most Americans, the highlight of last World Cup and one of the greatest soccer moments ever was the last second goal that Landon Donovan scored against Algeria to put the Americans through to the second round. It was one of the greatest of my soccer memories. Suffice it to say, it will not be repeated, not just because Donovan is not in Brazil, but because teams will be scoring on them at will.

Group G...."a bunch of cupcakes"

Group G-   Germany….Portugal….Ghana….United States

Group G has been called the group of Death. That is a stupid phrase. It is a very hard group, this is true. In fact all 4 teams qualified for the round of 16 in the last cup. The other groups have an average of less than 1.5 teams that made it that far last time. One thing is for sure…two teams who made the round of 16 last cup…will not make it this time.

 Germany had a very strong team in the last World Cup and nothing has changed in the last 4 years. They have a couple minor health issues and are missing Marco Reus, a quality goal scorer, but they have a great deal of depth, and they will not lean on excuses. The team the US beat last summer, was an out of shape B team, while the US was in prime shape from gold Cup and domestic league play. Not much should be read into that game. It will be a complete shock if the Germans do not make it out of group play #1.

   Here is my homer pick. I am selecting the US to come out of this group #2. It will not be easy, but if they can get 4 points out of the Ghana and Portugal games, which means beating one and tying the other, than I think they will get through. They have the advantage of playing Germany last, by which time the Germans might already be through and laying low. If this is the case, they might even get a tie here as well. Now do not get me wrong. It will not be easy. In fact it will be very very difficult, but it is completely within the team’s ability.  They do not need to do anything amazing; they just have to not make mistakes. That is easier said than done, but if they play the way they can, and avoid communication breakdowns on defense…than they have the ability to move on in this tournament.

    Portugal are an interesting team. They struggled through qualifying and in fact they needed a win in their last game on the road in Sweden to even make the Cup, but they got it. They got it because perhaps the most dangerous and talented goal scorer in the world plays for them.  Cristiano Ronaldo is every bit the World Footballer of the Year. He scored a hat trick in that game clincher in Sweden. He can score at any minute against any one, but he is just one player, and in addition to a few nagging injuries that have been bothering him, he has also disappeared in international matches in the past. His club record is much better than his record for his country, and while he could almost win this group on his own..he could also fade into the background and that is my prediction for this cup. Despite a few flashes..Portugal will not advance.

    Ghana has knocked the US out of the WC before. On more than one occasion. They are talented fast and deep. The style they play, gives the US fits. That is partially why Klinsmann selected Nigeria as the last tune up game for the Americans, they play a similar style. The US does not plan on letting Ghana beat them again. If that happens, then Ghana will be in trouble against Germany and Portugal, both of whom play with more discipline and experience. Ghana, if they fail against the US, will likely go 3 and out. One interesting matchup to watch when Ghana play Germany are the Boatang brothers. They are twins and one plays for Ghana and the other for Germany. This has never happened before in a World Cup.

Group F

Group F-    Argentina….Bosnia & Herzegovina….Iran…Nigeria

Group F contains my pick to win the World Cup.  Argentina is now my favorite. This gives me no joy. I do not cheer for this South American powerhouse. I was never a fan of Maradona.  I am begrudging in my respect for Messi, but the simple fact is, they have deep talent. They are playing right next door to their home, which as history has shown is a real plus. They are healthy, and they have confidence, but not the immense pressure that Brazil have. These group games are just scrimmages and they will be primed and ready when the knock out stages start in 2 weeks.

 The second place team was not an easy choice, but I am going with Nigeria, not because of any great faith in their abilities. After all…they did not look that great against the US on Saturday, rather my lack of faith in the other two teams in this group. The Nigerian team is physical and healthy enough to get the points they need against the other weak opponents.

Bosnia is not a real threat to get out of the group. The team has a couple players with top flight European experience, but no real depth and no World Cup experience, since this is their first time qualifying. I realize they scored goals during the qualifying process, 30 in 10 games, but that was against weak teams and when asked to defend themselves…they have been lacking.

Iran is not going to make it out. Enough said. They do not have world class talent and they do not have experience. They will load up 10 players behind the ball. Frustrate and break up as much of the other teams offense as possible and hope that a mistake is made that somehow gives them a goal.

Soccer from nation to nation

Soccer is played all over the world, yet it is a little different everywhere. One of the beautiful things about the sport is that it can be played in so many different styles. Over time, every country has adapted the game to their own country's personality. The flair of the Italians, the joy of the Brazilians, and the German structure are all on display. As you watch games in this cup, notice ways that the sides playing styles reflect the country. Then watch the USA play. No country in Brazil has as many people from as many nationalities as the United States. It is great to see and truly reflects the multicultural nature of the country. If the team can learn to play together, there can be strength in the diversity. If not...if they are not able to communicate and get on the same page, then it will be a short tournament.